British sports data analytics company Opta has ranked the favourite countries for this year’s Africa Cup of Nations in Morocco, listing the hosts at the top of the pecking order, while Nigeria are fifth.
With the 2025 AFCON set to kick off on December 21 and run until January 18, 2026, anticipation is building around what promises to be another unpredictable and emotionally charged tournament.
According to Opta’s supercomputer prediction, hosts Morocco headline the list of contenders, giving them a 19.1 per cent chance of lifting the title for a second time.
Morocco won their only AFCON title in 1976. In the group stage, they drew 2–2 with Sudan, beat Zaire 1–0 and defeated Nigeria 3–1. In the final round, they beat Egypt 2–1, Nigeria 2–1 and drew 1–1 with Guinea to secure the trophy.
“Playing at home and riding an 18-match winning streak, Morocco enter AFCON 2025 as the top favourite. Walid Regragui’s side blends tactical discipline with attacking speed, backed by key figures like Brahim Díaz, Youssef En-Nesyri and goalkeeper Yassine Bounou. Their defensive solidity and consistency make the Atlas Lions the team everyone wants to avoid,” Opta said.
The hosts are followed by Egypt with a 12.4 per cent chance of winning a record-extending eighth African title. The Pharaohs have previously won the competition in 1957, 1959, 1986, 1998, 2006, 2008 and 2010.
It has been 15 years since their last triumph, but Opta thinks, “Egypt lean heavily on Mohamed Salah, who is chasing his first continental title despite mixed club form. With seven AFCON crowns already, the Pharaohs’ experience and Salah’s individual brilliance keep them firmly in the title conversation.”
Senegal, who recently won their first title, were also given a 12.3 per cent chance. After finishing as runners-up in 2019, the Teranga Lions eventually claimed their maiden title at the 2021 edition, which was played in 2022 in Cameroon, beating Egypt on penalties in the final.
“Senegal arrive with renewed energy under Pape Thiaw. Led by Sadio Mané and supported by dynamic attackers like Ismaïla Sarr and Iliman Ndiaye, the Lions of Teranga combine physical power with tactical balance, making them one of the most complete squads in the tournament,” Opta said of their chances.
Champions in 2019, Algeria, who have failed to progress beyond the group stages in the last two editions, are ranked as the fourth favourites with a 12 per cent chance.
Three-time champions and runners-up at Ivory Coast 2023, Nigeria are ranked fifth with a 7.3 per cent chance. Under new coach Eric Chelle, Nigeria’s attack, led by Victor Osimhen, is described as one of the most explosive in the tournament, but Opta believes defensive absences and a demanding group could complicate their path.
Beyond the top five, other contenders include defending champions Ivory Coast, along with Nigeria’s group opponents Tunisia, as well as Mali, Cameroon, South Africa and DR Congo.
